Viewpoints

and

Reflections

August 14, 2019

Quarterly Comments: Third Quarter 2019

Heard on Bloomberg radio this morning – “Looking forward, people do not like what they see.” Why is that? Well, we have a host of reasons to be cautious, but here are the top few:

First on that list has to be the fact that the yield curve, the difference in rates on the 2 year Treasury note when compared to the 10 year Treasury bond has inverted. In other words, the two year rate pushed higher than the te...

Trade. Tariffs. Trade. Tariffs and a little bit of Brexit.  And the beat goes on.

            The beat seems to be picking up tempo, however. Tariffs on items manufactured in China have increased from 10% to 25%, and the range of products on which the tariffs are levied had broadened out to include many consumer items. The stock markets are beginning to rethink the “priced in” assumption that a trade deal would be reached soon. So now we see...

Up until very recently the stock markets have been complacent, working under the assumption that the trade war rhetoric would not erupt into a real trade war. As of today, May 13th, however, it seems that traders are not so sure about that “not really” assumption.

 Why does the stock market react negatively both to applied tariffs and to a real threat of more tariffs being imposed on Chinese imports? Because, quite simply, tariffs are a tax....

My father used to say, “In confusion there is profit.” He probably meant you could get away with an awful lot of nonsense while the adults were looking the other way. But I think there is some wisdom here – Let’s consider this: We are confused. Global growth is slowing, the earnings growth of companies here in the US is slowing by more than half this year, even the Federal Reserve is slowing its forecast of interest rate increases. And yet,...

February 22, 2019

What is the difference between "slowing" and "slow"? I think we need to clarify this distinction to understand our outlook for 2019. The economy here in the US is slowing, as is the Global economy. Peak economic growth may be behind us, but this does not mean that we are facing an imminent recession. We expect to see more of an earnings decline in 2019. Whereas corporate earnings grew at 20% or more in 2018, we expect that to decline to arou...

  • Markets fell late last year, pricing in many potential risks

  • Global equities have started strong this year

  • We continue to be optimistic for three primary reasons: Fed pause, trade resolution, and a strong economy.

In 2018, U.S. equities, as measured by the S&P 500, posted their worst year in a decade. The year was characterized by a return of volatility, marked by several record-setting highs followed by sharp reversals. Desp...

January 7, 2019

If you are a “first timer” experiencing a major market correction for the very first time or even someone who lived through the market crisis of 2008 but was less effected then, the horror of opening a statement and seeing a seriously lower number than last month can be unnerving, unsettling, even panic inducing. How can we make sense of a bear market? What are the best ways to cope with what feels like a drumbeat of bad news?

As one who has...

  • U.S. manufacturing plunged in December, causing equity markets to sell off and bond prices to rise.

  • Apple reported big drop in revenues. The company makes up roughly 3% of the S&P 500.

  • We remain cautiously optimistic, as labor markets and the service sector of the economy remains on solid footing. 

 The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released a report showing U.S. manufacturing slowed in Dece...

  • Equities have sold off as the Federal Reserve hiked rates for the fourth time this year

  • Possible government shutdown looms, but government dysfunction is nothing new.

  • We remain cautiously optimistic. Economic and company fundamentals remain strong

In 2018, tax reform legislation was implemented, corporate earnings grew to nearly 20% and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, with more job openings than people looking fo...

  • Global growth concerns sent equity markets down over 3%.

  • The selloff affected bond markets, as investors moved to longer dated Treasurys.

  • We remain cautiously optimistic.

Equity markets are declining sharply ahead of Wednesday’s market holiday to honor the late President George H.W. Bush. Investors are shifting from stocks to longer maturity, safe haven Treasurys. This reallocation has sent bond prices higher, causing bond yi...

Please reload

About Cetera® Investment Management

Cetera Investment Management provides investment expertise in the form of tools and insights that can help your advisor deliver advice that best meets your needs, including:
• In-depth market perspectives
• Timely economic insights
• Asset allocation guidance
• Money manager recommendations
• Model portfolios
• Performance monitoring tools


Learn More
When clicking on the link above you will be redirected to the www.cetera.com website.
About Cetera® Investment Management Cetera Investment Management LLC is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser owned by
Cetera Financial Group®. It provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers, and Registered Investment Advisers. For more information, please reference the Cetera Investment Management LLC Form ADV disclosure brochure.

NEWSLETTER SIGN UP

Join our newsletter for market analysis and investment news, event invitations and more.

GREENSBORO

301 N. Elm Street, Suite 301

Greensboro, NC 27401

P: 336-274-9403

F: 336-273-0217

DURHAM

3001 Academy Rd., Suite 110

Durham, NC 27707

P: 919-595-0619

  • LinkedIn - Grey Circle
  • Facebook - Grey Circle

Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Erickson Advisors. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. 

This site is published for residents of the United States only. Registered Representatives of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions in which they are properly registered. Not all of the products and services referenced on this site may be available in every state and through every advisor listed. For additional information please contact the advisor(s) listed on the site, visit the Cetera Advisor Networks LLC site at www.ceteraadvisornetworks.com.